Revisiting My Fearless Magic Predictions


Back three years ago, I made a series of magic-related predictions. Now let's check back in to see how many of them I correctly predicted to see if I am secretly Nostradamus in disguise (also you guys promised me a bucket of fried chicken if I got at least 4 correct).

1. Swords to Plowshares will be reprinted in the next three years. - INCORRECT
So it seems that Wizards feels that Path to Exile is about the high water mark of power for this level of effect. Maybe they have concerns about this and Path coexisting in modern or maybe they feel it would be too dominating in standard. I want to say I heard Mark Rosewater talk about the flavor of STP causing a creature to starting farming was out of the context of how wizards designed the way that white flavor-fully deals with creatures.

2. Control Magic will be reprinted in the next three years. - INCORRECT
This one I'm now pretty sure is not going to happen. Control Magic has a completely realistic power level for standard and is such a great simple cards with lots of complexity under the surface. However, someone at Wizards has stated that creature stealing effects without a downside are simply too powerful to show up at uncommon for drafting purposes. The control magic variants they have done in the last three years have all been significantly less powerful and Soul's Ransom might set a precident that the effect will be moved to higher rarities. If this is the case, Control Magic doesn't feel rare and would probably just disappoint many people if it was printed as a rare.

3. Stone Rain will not be reprinted within the next three years. - CORRECT
This one seems pretty obvious looking back now. Wizards has been trying to encourage new players to get hooked on magic by trying to create a better experience for more inexperienced players. Mechanics like discard, counterspells and land destruction all lead to players having few choices and less ability to interact with their opponents. What makes magic fun for most players are these complicated decisions and the interactions between cards. Stone rain, especially with the existence of mana dorks, is simply too powerful and inspires too many people to rage quit for it to be coming back any time soon.

4. Scars of Mirrodin will have little in common with Mirrodin Block. - CORRECT
I'm gonna go out on a limb and say this one is correct, although I didn't really define it very well to begin with. Scars was much more about the Phyrexians and their infect ability than anything else. Sure the metalcraft and imprint mechanics had some powerful and interesting cards, but the block had no overpowered artifact synergies like affinity and ended up being more tangentially about artifacts as compared to the original Mirrodin block. Since Wizards starting using the story to drive the flavor of their sets more starting with this block, so flavorfully this block returned to a lot of the same elements in the first block to check in with how they had changed, the more nuanced answer might be that mechanically this statement is true but flavorfully this statement is false.

5. Dan will start playing magic again in the next three years. - INCORRECT
Dan, much like the legendary sasquash, has only been heard of through the eyewitness reports of those who think they might have seen him in the Food Lion parking lot or possibly driving past, but nothing has been confirmed. No one can really be certain what this giggly beast is up too, but one thing is for certain, he is probably high right now.

Comments

  1. I drove by Dan in Boulder Creek like a year ago. He was stopped at a stop sign and I slowed down as I passed him. I smiled and stared at him, craning my neck to maintain eye contact with him for as long as I could as I passed. He looked kinda pissed off and didn't really acknowledge me. He's an All Star.

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